3.8. 溶融塩炉の経済性(計算過程)

========= 以下は計算過程なので、関心のある方だけご覧下さい。=======

Table 1. Economic parameters (M$)

 

MSR

PWR

Direct costs

   

Land and land rights

5

5

Struct. & Improvements

301

269

Reactor plant equip

437

337

Turbine plant equip.

243

274

Electric plant equip

131

107

Misc. plant equip

41

32

Main cond. heat reject.

34

53

Total direct costs

1,191

1,077

Indirect costs

   

Construction services

182

170

Home-office eng. Serv.

129

129

Field-office eng & serv.

82

73

Total indirect costs

393

371

Total capital cost, M$

1584

1448

Table 2. Power Generation Cost (cent/kWh)

 

MSR

PWR

Capital cost

2.01

2.07

O&M cost

0.58

1.13

Fuel cost (* See below)

0.12

0.66

Waste disposal cost

0.10

0.10

Decommissioning cost

0.04

0.07

Total cost (cent/kWh)

2.85(-29%)

4.03

(*) LLNL data (ref.2) is based on de-natured MSR, which uses U235 as fissile, and its FCC was 1.11(cent/kWh) for MSR, and 0.74(cent/kWh) for PWR. Therefore, FCC is revised by the author, using recent FUJI-12 data. Also, PWR data is re-evaluated using recent data.

MSR (FUJI-233U) FCC Calculation (Front-end Fuel Cycle Cost)

 

Plant data for FUJI-233U

Assumed 1Gwe MSR

Electric power

200 MWe

1,000 MWe

Thermal power

450 MWt

2,250 MWt

Initial Th232 weight in ThF4

38.4 ton

192 ton

Initial U233 weight in UF4

0.80 ton

4.0 ton

Initial Li7 weight in LiF

5.2 ton

26.0 ton

Initial Be weight in BeF2

1.5 ton

7.5 ton

Capacity factor

90%

90%

Total U233 loading for 30 years operation

0.755 ton (* see below)
(0.025 t/y)

3.78 ton 
(0.125 t/y)

       (*) 0.629tons at CF=0.75 is converted to CF=0.90 case.


2) Unit price dollar data

Thoria (ThO2)

$15/LB

=1978 price at ORNL report. 
(Since uranium price does not change from 1978, ThO2 price is assumed same as 1978.)

Metallic Th

$38/kgTh

(=15 / 0.4536 / 0.88)

U233

$33/gram.

See below.

Li7

$0.6/gram.

=1978 price at ORNL report.
(Estimated as large quantity price for 99.99%.)

Be

$75/LB  =$165/kg

=1978 price at ORNL report.

In the PWR calculation, U235 weight = 25t X 0.035 = 0.88 ton.

U235 value = (15.9+13.2)M$ / 0.88ton = $33/gram. This price is applied to U233 value. 

1) Initial fuel

Thorium cost:

192t X $38/kgTh / 1,000 = 7.3 M$

U233 cost:

4.0t X $33/gram(:M$/ton) = 132.0 M$

Li7

26.0t X $0.6/gram(:M$/ton) =15.6 M$

Be

7.5t X $165/kg / 1,000 =1.2 M$

Total

156.1 M$.

2) Reload fuel /year

Thorium cost:

0.74t/y (*) X $38/kgTh / 1,000 = 0.03 M$/y

U233 cost:

0.125t/y X $33/gram(:M$/ton) = 4.13 M$

Total

4.16 M$/y.

(*) Using a rule-of-thumb of “1 gram fission” =1MWD, 2333Mwt X 365d X 0.90 / 1.0E6 = 0.74 ton/year.

Total fuel cost for 30 years operation

(156.1 + 4.16 X 30y) X 1.0E8 = 0.281E11 cents.

Total power generation for 30 years Operation

1,000,000 kW X 24hr X 365d X 0.90 X 30y = 2.36E11 kWh

MSR FCC

0.12 cent/kWh

Annual escalation and the interest rate are not included, and Fuel Cost is simply summed.

 

PWR FCC Calculation (Front-end Fuel Cycle Cost)

1) Plant data (year 2000 data)

Electric power

1,000 MWe

Thermal power

3,000 MWt

Specific power

39.0 kW/Kg

Core weight (heavy metal)

77 ton

Fuel enrichment

3.5 wt%

Discharge burn-up

35,000 MWd/t

Cycle loading for 15 months cycle

31.2 tonU/cycle

Capacity factor

80 %

Averaged annual loading (heavy metal)

25.0 tonU/y

2) Unit price dollar data

Yellow cake (U3O8)

$35/LB

=1978 price at ORNL report. 
(Recent long-term-contract price may be close to this price, although 2004 spot price is $17.5/kg.)

Metallic U

$91/kgU

(=35 / 0.4536 / 0.85)

SWU

$110/kgU

=2004 price.
(ORNL 1978 price was $80/kg.)

Fabrication

$500/kgU

Assumed price for recent manufacturing.

Assuming 0.25% tail enrichment, and or 3.5% enrichment for both initial fuel and reload fuel.

1) Initial fuel

Feed component cost:

77t X (Feed Component =7.0) X $91/kgU / 1,000 = 49.0 M$

SWU cost:

77t X (SWU=4.8) X $110/kgU / 1,000 = 40.7 M$

Fabrication cost:

77t X $500/kgU / 1,000 = 38.5 M$

Total

128.2 M$.

2) Reload fuel /year

Feed component cost:

25.0t/y X (Feed Component =7.0) X $91/kgU / 1,000 = 15.9 M$/y

SWU cost:

25.0t/y X (SWU=4.8) X $110/kgU / 1,000 = 13.2 M$

Fabrication cost:

25.0t/y X $500/kgU / 1,000 = 12.5 M$

Total

41.6 M$/y.

 

Total fuel cost for 30 years operation

(128.2M$ + 41.6M$ X 30 ) X 1.0E8 = 1.38E11 cents.

Total power generation for 30 years Operation

1,000,000 kW X 24hr X 365d X 0.80 X 30y= 2.10E11 kWh

PWR FCC

0.66 cent/kWh

Annual escalation and the interest rate are not included, and Fuel Cost is simply summed.

1999年12月の総合エネルギー調査会第70回原子力部会におけるモデル試算
(経済産業省ホームページhttp://www.enecho.meti.go.jp/faq/electric/q04.htm)
によると、下記の通りであり、今回の計算は、軽水炉についてはほぼ妥当であることが分かる。

  LWR
(METI試算)

PWR
(上記計算)

資本費(セント/KWH、以下同じ)

2.3円/kWh

2.07円/kWh

運転保守費

1.9

1.13

燃料サイクル費

0.74

0.66

再処理費 (0,63) NA

廃棄物処理費

0.25

0.10

解体費

0.07円/kWh

0.07

合計発電コスト(再処理費除く)

5.26円/kWh

4.03円/kWh


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